Shane Baz spent nearly two years watching from the sidelines, a Tommy John surgery in September 2022 robbing him of precious development time just as his major league career was beginning to take shape. Now, the 25-year-old right-hander is making up for lost time, establishing himself as the cornerstone of Tampa Bay’s rotation with a string of dominant performances to open the 2025 campaign.
Through his first month of action, Baz has been nothing short of spectacular. His early-season brilliance was perhaps best showcased on April 1st against the Pittsburgh Pirates, when he struck out a career-high 10 batters over six shutout innings while scattering seven singles and issuing no walks. That outing also saw his fastball touch 100.4 mph, a career-best that signaled his complete recovery from the elbow reconstruction that sidelined him for the entire 2023 season.
“I just didn’t want to be the guy to throw a bad first game,” Baz said after that dominant performance against the Pirates. “It’s fun. It’s fun to watch. Every outing, I feel like, has the potential to be special for everybody. So it’s an honor to be part of the group.”
The numbers through his initial starts have been eye-popping. After his first three outings, Baz had posted a 1.42 ERA with a 2.15 FIP while striking out nearly 13 batters per nine innings and maintaining excellent control with just 1.89 walks per nine. His most recent triumph came against the Red Sox, where he allowed just one run on two hits while fanning 11 batters in a victory that further cemented his status as the staff’s emerging ace.
For Rays manager Kevin Cash, watching Baz’s development has been particularly satisfying after the organization’s patient approach to his rehabilitation. “He threw the ball extremely well,” Cash remarked following Baz’s dominant performance against Pittsburgh, where the pitcher also notably made heavier than usual use of his curveball.
What makes Baz’s evolution especially remarkable is the clear velocity gains he’s made since last season. After struggling to regain his pre-surgery heat during his 2024 return, his fastball has jumped from 95.6 mph to 97 mph this season, with the ability to reach triple digits in key moments. This improved velocity has made his already devastating 83.8 mph curveball even more effective, creating a differential that leaves hitters flailing at pitches they can barely track.
The Rays organization deserves considerable credit for their methodical approach to Baz’s development. Though he was a highly-touted prospect acquired in the now-infamous Chris Archer trade with Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay has never rushed his progress, even when the major league rotation could have used his electric arm. This patience appears to be paying dividends, with Baz showing the poise and command that had previously been questions in his profile.
“The level of pitcher we are seeing right now only makes the infamous Chris Archer trade sting that much more in Pittsburgh,” notes one baseball analyst. “The Rays often find ways to get the most out of their players, no matter the skill level.” Indeed, the organization’s reputation for pitcher development appears to be fully justified in Baz’s case.
For Tampa Bay, Baz’s emergence couldn’t come at a better time. With ace Shane McClanahan still working his way back from a nerve-related triceps issue, the rotation needed someone to step forward. While the entire pitching staff has performed admirably to begin the season, posting a collective 1.60 ERA through their first five games, Baz’s ceiling appears to be the highest of anyone currently taking regular turns on the mound.
The most encouraging aspect of Baz’s start has been his ability to maintain his effectiveness deep into games. Unlike many pitchers returning from major arm surgery who struggle with stamina, he has already shown the ability to work efficiently into the sixth and seventh innings, giving Tampa Bay’s bullpen valuable rest between his starts.
With three more seasons of team control remaining before free agency, the Rays find themselves in an enviable position. Should Baz continue on his current trajectory, he projects as not just a frontline starter but a legitimate Cy Young Award candidate in the American League. That’s rarefied air for a pitcher with fewer than 120 career major league innings, but the tools and early results suggest such lofty expectations might be entirely reasonable.
Rays fans, who have seen their share of pitching talent come and go through the organization’s revolving door, will be watching closely to see if this particular Shane can deliver on his enormous promise. If the first month of the season is any indication, they may have found their next homegrown superstar.