After enduring weeks of parched conditions, Tampa Bay residents may finally see relief as forecasters predict the arrival of much-needed rainfall this weekend.
“We’ve definitely been on the dry side in April, and then into May, but there’s definitely hope on the horizon,” said Christianne Pearce, a meteorologist for the National Weather Service’s Tampa Bay office.
The dry spell has left its mark across the region, with once-green lawns turning brown and pond levels noticeably dropping. All Tampa Bay counties are currently experiencing some level of drought conditions, with Pinellas County and portions of Pasco and Hillsborough under a “moderate drought,” while other areas face “severe drought” classification.
Weather service officials announced Thursday that a rush of moist air moving south into the area brings a marginal risk of severe weather through the weekend, with a low chance of hail, damaging winds and flash flooding. This moisture is expected to deliver widespread rain starting Saturday and continuing through Monday.
Rainfall forecasts project approximately 1½ to 2 inches across Tampa Bay over the next week, with higher amounts possible in northern inland counties. Florida’s east coast could receive up to 4 inches during the same period.
The anticipated rainfall represents a significant departure from recent patterns. Tampa recorded just over a half-inch of rain in April, far below the typical 2½ inches normally expected. St. Petersburg saw only 0.6 inches, compared to its normal amount of just under 2 inches.
“Anywhere you go pretty much in the peninsula right now is in some type of drought, just because it’s been a pretty dry April, really March and April,” Pearce explained.
The dry conditions have elevated wildfire risks throughout the region. Todd Chlanda, a wildfire mitigation specialist with the Florida Forest Service, noted an increasing number of wildfires across the area in recent weeks.
“The conditions we have right now are extremely dry, so we’re seeing an increase in fires,” Chlanda said. While most fires have remained relatively small—ranging from one-tenth of an acre to about 100 acres—the potential for rapid spread remains a concern.
In response to the heightened risk, fire departments have been contacting the Florida Forest Service earlier during incidents. The Forest Service has restricted agricultural burning for about a month, and Hillsborough County has implemented a ban on open outdoor burning through Friday.
Beyond the immediate rainfall, there’s cause for optimism. The U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook released on April 30 indicates drought relief is likely in Tampa Bay through July. Additionally, the region is approaching the end of its traditional dry season, with the characteristic afternoon thunderstorms typically returning by mid-to-late May.
Until then, temperatures will hover near 90 degrees for most of the week before dropping into the lower 80s by Monday as the rain arrives.
“This is fairly typical dryness,” Pearce noted. “Each week, it should get better I would think once these rains start.”